AGP Executive Report

School Protests: Pupils in Azerbaijan staged protests and class boycotts after reports that a new dress code barred hijab-wearing students and teachers from schools. Regional Diplomacy: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet is due in Azerbaijan from October 12 to 17 for an official visit and the October 15 CICA summit. President Ilham Aliyev and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also pledged closer economic cooperation in a phone call. Baku Judo: Azerbaijan’s Ushangi Kokauri won heavyweight silver at the World Championships, where the individual events concluded; the mixed-team contest is next. Economy: Azerbaijan recorded 1.5% GDP growth in January–September, while fixed-capital investment rose 10.9%. Armenia Relations: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said peace with Azerbaijan is established but humanitarian issues remain unresolved, as the European Parliament called for the release of Armenian detainees held in Azerbaijan.

Regional Diplomacy: US President Donald Trump claimed he helped resolve the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in two days, saying Vladimir Putin had tried unsuccessfully for a decade. Caspian Cooperation: The five littoral states are moving toward a joint commission on the Caspian Sea’s falling water level, with its first meeting proposed for Azerbaijan in the first half of 2027. The decline threatens ecosystems and shipping capacity. Economy: Azerbaijan’s fixed-capital investment rose 10.9% in January–September to AZN 14.69 billion; the non-oil and gas sector accounted for about two-thirds. Sport: Baku’s World Judo Championships brought Azerbaijan a record five medals, including one gold, ahead of the final day of competition. Public Health: A Health Ministry official said life expectancy in Azerbaijan exceeded 77 years by the end of 2025, while warning that non-communicable diseases are becoming more prevalent.

Regional Diplomacy: President Ilham Aliyev wrapped up a working visit to Turkmenistan, where Azerbaijan joined Central Asian leaders in discussing trade, transport and energy links. Baku is set to chair the regional format in 2027 and says it is ready to chair the CIS in 2028. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called peace an established fact, as officials held technical talks on electricity lines under the TRIPP project. Tensions remain after an Azerbaijani serviceman crossed into Armenia and wounded a civilian in Shaki before being detained. Caspian Sea: Leaders warned that falling water levels threaten regional economies and ecosystems. Azerbaijan will host the first meeting of a five-country commission on the decline in 2027; the AIIB also approved a $45 million loan for a seawater desalination project. Economy & Energy: Azerbaijan recorded a $2.33 billion state-budget surplus in the first nine months of 2026, while external debt fell 7.8%. Transit traffic through the country rose 10%, and SOCAR earned an ESG rating from S&P Global. Security: Azerbaijan says landmine blasts have injured two people in Jabrayil, bringing the toll since 2020 to 443. An Azerbaijani captain was also killed in a drone attack on a Black Sea cargo ship, with one crew member still missing.

CIS Summit: President Ilham Aliyev attended the leaders’ meeting in Turkmenbashi, saying Azerbaijan is ready to chair the Commonwealth in 2028. He said transit cargo through Azerbaijan rose 10% in the first half of 2026 to nearly 8 million tons. Central Asia Ties: At a separate regional summit, Azerbaijan joined the Central Asian cooperation format as it prepares to chair it in 2027. Leaders backed closer transport, trade and green-energy links; Aliyev said trade with Central Asian countries grew by more than 50% last year. Armenia Talks: Azerbaijani and Armenian representatives met in Goris to discuss power lines under the TRIPP project. The two sides also discussed searches for people missing from past conflicts, as a Baku conference adopted a declaration calling for stronger international efforts. Economy: Azerbaijan posted a 3.96 billion manat ($2.33 billion) state budget surplus in the first nine months of 2026. External public debt fell 7.8% year on year to $4.51 billion. Sport: Eight Azerbaijani boxers advanced to the U17 European Championship semifinals, while para-taekwondo athlete Sabir Zeynalov won silver at the Paris Grand Prix.

Regional Summit: Azerbaijan joined Central Asian leaders in the expanded C6 format in Turkmenistan, where President Ilham Aliyev backed closer cooperation on security, trade, transport and green energy. Kazakhstan proposed linking the Middle Corridor with the TRIPP route. Armenia Talks: Azerbaijani and Armenian officials met in Goris to discuss routing power lines under TRIPP, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said a meeting with Aliyev was possible but not scheduled. Landmine Danger: A father and son were injured in a mine blast in Jabrayil; Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry says 443 people have been killed or injured by mines since the 2020 war. Missing Persons: A Baku conference adopted a declaration calling for action to establish the fate of people missing in conflicts and affirming families’ right to know. Judo: Azerbaijan secured a record fifth medal at the World Championships in Baku, with Murad Fatiyev taking bronze. EU Relations: The European Parliament urged Azerbaijan to release named political prisoners and suggested considering targeted sanctions over rights concerns.

Regional Summit: President Ilham Aliyev joined Central Asian leaders in Turkmenistan, where they signed a joint statement. Aliyev said Azerbaijan’s trade with Central Asia rose more than 50% last year and highlighted plans for a green-energy corridor with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and stronger Caspian transport links. Missing Persons: A Baku conference brought officials and experts together to address unresolved wartime cases. Researchers reported finding remains of 16 people in Karabakh; more than 4,000 people remain missing, according to an Azerbaijani official. Serbia’s foreign ministry chief backed sustained cooperation to establish the fate of missing people. Diplomacy and Trade: Azerbaijan and Türkiye agreed to expand industrial cooperation, while Georgia said it would buy Azerbaijani electricity directly, cutting out intermediaries. Spy Case: Baku denied allegations linking former German intelligence chief August Hanning to Azerbaijani intelligence and protested reports about the case. Armenia: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said an Azerbaijani serviceman detained after crossing the border would remain in Armenia for now, rejecting a proposed prisoner exchange.

Türkiye Ties: Ankara’s ruling party spokesperson rejected claims of a rift with Baku, saying the allies resolve differences through dialogue and warning outside actors against driving them apart. Regional Connectivity: Azerbaijan’s foreign minister urged Central Asian partners in Avaza to deepen cooperation and upgrade the Middle Corridor, including through better infrastructure and digital transit. German Spy Case: Baku denied allegations linking it to the investigation of former intelligence chief August Hanning; German prosecutors have not publicly identified the foreign service involved. Missing Persons: A conference in Baku focused on finding people missing from past conflicts, with Azerbaijan highlighting 71 missing children and calling for DNA samples to help identify remains. Armenia Tensions: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said an Azerbaijani serviceman detained after crossing the border will remain in Armenia for now, rejecting a prisoner swap. Ukraine Support: Azerbaijan sent transformers, 186 kilometres of cables and other energy equipment to help Ukraine prepare for winter. Black Sea Attack: An Azerbaijani captain was killed and a crew member went missing after a cargo ship was struck off Romania; a separate drone attack sank a vessel off Bulgaria. Judo: Azerbaijan’s Zelim Tckaev won silver and Omar Rajabli bronze at the World Championships in Baku.

Missing Persons Diplomacy: President Ilham Aliyev told the 4th Baku Dialogue conference that Azerbaijan will keep mobilizing efforts to clarify the fate of missing people, stressing that none of its missing citizens are forgotten and calling on Armenia to provide full information, open archives and collect witness statements. UN Humanitarian Focus: Azerbaijan also raised the fate of 71 missing children at the UN General Assembly, highlighting landmine contamination that has killed or injured thousands since the 1990s. Armenia-Missing Persons Update: Azerbaijan said DNA profiles of 50 people submitted by Armenia in January 2026 did not match remains found in Nagorno-Karabakh. Energy & Economy: The US EIA kept Azerbaijan’s 2026 oil output forecast at 550,000 bpd, while the World Bank cut Azerbaijan’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%. Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine: Azerbaijan dispatched a new shipment of electrical equipment worth 2.5 million manats to support Ukraine’s electricity supply. Tech & Space: ASELSAN unveiled its Astralink low-Earth orbit satellite constellation, aiming for fast, secure communications. Sports: Azerbaijan Cup 2026/27 kicks off with two matches today; Azerbaijani U-17 boxers advanced to European quarterfinals. International Relations: Azerbaijan’s Media and Broadcasting Council rejected reports linking the country to a German BND espionage probe as disinformation.

German Spy Scandal: Germany detained former BND chief August Hanning on suspicion of espionage and treason, with reports alleging he passed thousands of secret intelligence documents to Azerbaijan-linked contacts. UK-Azerbaijan Economic Ties: In Baku, Azerbaijan and the UK held their 8th Joint Intergovernmental Commission meeting, signing a protocol and four cooperation documents spanning green energy, transport connectivity, and urban mobility, while also discussing new working groups. Digital Cooperation: Azerbaijan’s Finance Minister met the Digital Cooperation Organization leadership to advance digital transformation financing, AI, cybersecurity, and reforms to digitalize public financial management. Regional Security Drills: Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan carried out the “Eternal Brotherhood – V” joint special forces exercise, focusing on interoperability, counter-terror operations, and joint firing drills. Sports in Baku: Azerbaijan’s Rashid Mammadaliyev won bronze at the Judo World Championships, while France’s Sarah-Léonie Cysique was hospitalized after landing on her head in a semifinal. Transport & Trade: Azerbaijan Railways reported a 19% passenger increase through September, and officials highlighted a major rise in exports to the UK. Black Sea Incident: A drone strike near Romania’s waters reportedly killed a ship captain and left others wounded, with Azerbaijanis among those on board.

Black Sea Safety: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry says a drone attack on the cargo vessel “Royad Mammadov” off Romania killed Azerbaijani captain Rustam Hasanov and left another crew member missing, while others were rescued and three hospitalized; Azerbaijan is coordinating consular help and repatriation. Energy & Infrastructure: AzerEnerji is building three hydropower plants in Lachin (Seyidlar, Bulovlu, Gosasu) totaling 10.7 MW, with turbines and generators being installed ahead of commissioning. Middle Corridor Tech: Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable is set to launch in October after 390 km of cable is laid, boosting high-speed Asia-Europe connectivity. Trade & Logistics: Alat Free Economic Zone plans to open a cargo airport by late March/early April 2027, starting with 500,000 tons annually and scaling up. Economy Watch: The World Bank cut Azerbaijan’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%, while PASHA’s Elman Eminov links moderate ~6% inflation to offsetting factors despite high energy prices. Sports Spotlight: World Judo Championships continue in Baku with Azerbaijani judoka competing on day three, after Ahmad Yusifov’s opening-day gold.

Black Sea Security: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says two Russian drones struck a Turkish-owned civilian cargo ship carrying corn in neutral waters, killing the captain and injuring at least one crew member; Zelenskyy adds Azerbaijani and Indian citizens were on board and 11 crew were rescued. Sports & Diplomacy: Baku hosted the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Judo Championships, with President Ilham Aliyev attending as Azerbaijan’s judo stars and visiting delegations take center stage. Environment Spotlight: The World Aquatics Foundation presented Azerbaijan with an Environmental Award during the Baku World Cup, praising long-term conservation efforts under President Ilham Aliyev. Energy & Business: Gran Tierra Energy says Azerbaijan’s Milli Majlis ratified its onshore Guba-Khazaryani exploration and production sharing deal, while the company reports completion of a dFTG survey. Tech Cooperation: Azerbaijan’s foreign minister met the Digital Cooperation Organization’s secretary general to expand ties on digital transformation, AI, and the startup ecosystem. Regional Links: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan plan high-capacity Caspian railway ferries to move up to 120 rail wagons at once.

Post-War Strategy & Politics: President Ilham Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party congress message framed peace as a strategic choice and set priorities around independent foreign policy, deterrence, and diversified partnerships. Agriculture & Industry: Azerbaijan plans a 230-hectare greenhouse zone in liberated territories to boost higher-value output using modern technologies. Diplomacy: Aliyev met newly appointed ambassadors from Malaysia and Austria, stressing upgrades in energy, investment, tourism, and political dialogue. Regional Borders: Georgia’s PM said Tbilisi will continue friendly border delimitation and demarcation with both Azerbaijan and Armenia, including the David Gareji issue. Security & Armenia: Armenia’s NSS reported detention of an Azerbaijani serviceman after a shooting in Syunik’s Shaki village. Economy & Transport: Azerbaijan directed 75.3% of fixed capital investment to the non-oil sector in 2025, while Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan-Georgia digital trade steps cut rail cargo clearance times sharply. Culture & Events: Ganja hosted the Fidan Hajiyeva International Opera Festival stage; Baku will host the 6th Booktrailer International Film Festival and the CINEMO mobile film festival. Sports: Azerbaijan’s Ahmad Yusifov won gold at the Judo World Championships in Baku; Wakana Koga took women’s -48kg. Public Safety: A medical evacuation flight lost contact near the US coast; debris believed linked to the aircraft was found in the Atlantic, with six people aboard.

Lahore-to-Baku Escort: An Azerbaijani woman identified as Diana left Lahore for Baku on PIA flight PK-159 under Pakistani police supervision after earlier refusing to board, with officers including a female ASP accompanying her amid an alleged assault case. Armenia Tensions: Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan says signing and ratifying the initialed peace deal with Azerbaijan is a government priority, while Armenia reports an Azerbaijani serviceman detained after a shooting in Shaki, Syunik. EU Talks: Azerbaijan’s deputy foreign minister met an EU delegation to discuss a new partnership agreement, with focus on energy, transport, climate and the Middle Corridor. Defense Spotlight: Bayraktar Teknoloji Azerbaijan unveiled the KASIRGA loitering munition at ADEX 2026, touting autonomous takeoff/landing and strike or reconnaissance roles. Sports—Judo & Football: Ahmad Yusifov won gold at the World Judo Championships in Baku; Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1-0 in the UEFA Nations League with Abdulakh Khaybulaev scoring. Business & Finance: SOFAZ and Brookfield signed a memorandum to expand investment access to global capital markets.

Deportation Case in Focus: An Azerbaijani woman, Diana Baghiyeva, has been sent from Pakistan to Baku under police escort after Lahore authorities moved her through custody following an alleged gang-rape case that has drawn international attention. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Azerbaijan’s FM Jeyhun Bayramov spoke by phone with Iran’s Seyed Abbas Araghchi, discussing bilateral ties, regional security, and mutual trust. Geopolitics Statement: President Ilham Aliyev said the world has only two superpowers—USA and China—while Azerbaijan maintains strategic partnerships with both. Investment & Finance: SOFAZ and Brookfield signed a strategic partnership memorandum, with SOFAZ managing over $72bn and Brookfield over $1tn. Sports in Baku: The World Aquatics Swimming World Cup continues, with Azerbaijani swimmers setting national records and international medal races underway. Economy Watch: Bank deposits in Azerbaijan rose 37.5% and banks’ net foreign assets reached about $19.1bn as of Sept. 1.

Military & Security: Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan held the “Power of Unity-2026” drills in Azerbaijan’s Hojavend, with 3,500 troops rehearsing drone swarms, cyber/disinformation scenarios, border incidents and sea operations using 130+ unmanned vehicles and major artillery/aviation assets. Diplomacy: Serbia’s state secretary met Azerbaijan’s new ambassador, reaffirming strategic partnership and cooperation in energy, trade and investment. Regional Talks: Azerbaijan’s FM Jeyhun Bayramov spoke by phone with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, exchanging views on regional security and bilateral ties. Sports (Baku): The World Aquatics Swimming World Cup in Baku wrapped up its first-stop action, with major record-breaking performances including Pieter Coetze’s African record in the 100m back and Roos Vanotterdijk’s Belgian record in the 100m fly; Canada’s Taylor Ruck added medals (silver 200m back, bronze 100m free). Economy & Finance: Central Bank data showed Azerbaijani banks’ deposits rising 37.5% and net foreign assets up; M3 money supply also grew. Public Safety: Azerbaijan’s Interior Ministry reported a drug crackdown in Baku and Ganja, seizing 68 kg of narcotics and detaining suspects. Culture & Society: A kelaghayi exhibition opened in Ankara, while Ilyas Afandiyev was commemorated at his grave in Azerbaijan.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Border Row: Armenia’s National Security Service denied claims of multiple Azerbaijani infiltrators, saying only serviceman Nasimi Musayev illegally crossed into Shaki, Syunik, and is in court-ordered custody after the Oct. 1 shooting that wounded a woman and injured her children. Health Update: Azerbaijan’s Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan visited the wounded woman, saying her condition is stable. Great Return Update: Azerbaijan relocated 180 families (591 people) to Sugovushan under the Great Return program, with housing, a renovated school, rebuilt small hydropower plants, and a new mosque. Energy & Economy: Sugovushan-1 and -2 generated 61.6 million kWh over five years; Azeri Light crude slipped to $124.01/bbl at Augusta. Diplomacy & Connectivity: Azerbaijan and Switzerland discussed bilateral ties, Armenia normalization, regional security, transport links, and humanitarian demining in Bern. Sports & Culture: Turan Tovuz plays Fenerbahçe in a Baku friendly with proceeds for the Karabakh Revival Fund; Azerbaijan marked the 6th anniversary of Sugovushan and Talysh liberation. UN Appointment: Ramiz Alekperov was named UN Assistant Secretary-General for Safety and Security, starting Jan. 2027.